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12. RAINS Data Bases
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Remarks and Sources

This chapter contains further information about the RAINS input data.

Energy- and Agricultural Scenarios distributed with RAINS 7.2

RAINS 7.2 is distributed with the following sets of projections of energy consumption and agricultural activities for all European countries up to the year 2010:

• The 'Official Energy Pathway', i.e., projections of energy consumption as reported by governments to UN/ECE and published in the UN/ECE Energy Data Base (UN/ECE, 1995a). Where necessary, missing forecast data have been constructed by IIASA based on a simple energy projection model.
• The 'Conventional Wisdom' energy scenario of DG-XVII of the European Commission (only for the Member States of the European Union).
• The 'Agricultural Pathway' as compiled from national and international sources.

The 'Conventional Wisdom' energy scenario is one of the recent energy scenarios used by DG-XVII of the European Commission. Data are extracted from the 'Energy 2020' Study (DG-XVII, 1996). For Denmark the DG-XVII projections have been replaced by the forecast of the national energy plan recently adopted by the Danish Parliament.

Agricultural forecasts up to the year 2010 have been collected by IIASA, using national information (Marttila, 1995; Nemi, 1995; Pippatti, 1996; Henriksson, 1996; Riseth, 1990; Menzi, 1995), and studies performed for the Commission of the European Communities, DG-VI (EC DG-VI, 1995a-k - including countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Former Yugoslavia and Baltic Republics), and Egmond, 1995; Stolwijk, 1996; Folmer et.al, 1995 for EC-9 countries. Forecasts for Republics of Former Soviet Union were derived on the basis of the OECD study (OECD, 1995). Additional IIASA reports were used for both livestock and fertilizer forecasts (Klaassen, 1991; Klaassen, 1995).

The forecast of fertilizer consumption is based on estimates of the International Fertilizer Industry Association (Ginet, 1995). This forecast extends till 1999, the values for 2005 and 2010 are based on trend extrapolation assuming the same quantitative increase (Isherwood, 1995). The forecasts of fertilizer production and use till the year 2000 in Western Europe are in good agreement with results of an overview of world nitrogen supply and demand by B.L. Bump (Bump, 1995).

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